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U.S. Department of Transportation U.S. Department of Transportation Icon United States Department of Transportation United States Department of Transportation

New Model for Highway-Rail Grade Crossing Accident Prediction and Severity

Document Series
Technical Reports
Federal Railroad Administration
Report Number
Subject Grade Crossing Modeling and Simulation, Highway-Rail Grade Crossings
New Model for Highway-Rail Grade Crossing Accident Prediction and Severity
GX APS2-A.pdf (3.76 MB)

The U.S. Department of Transportation Accident Prediction and Severity (APS) model has been used by Federal, State, and local authorities to assess accident risk at highway-rail grade crossings since the late 1980s. The Federal Railroad Administration funded research for the development of a new model that employs current consensus analysis methods and recent data trends. The new model also seeks to address several limitations of the current APS model and to provide a more robust tool for analysts. 

This report presents the stages of the new model development, the statistical estimation of the new model, and validations comparing the performance of the new model with the APS. The research shows that the new model described here out-performs the APS by multiple measures.

The new model will support grade crossing management by enabling: more accurate risk ranking of grade crossings, more rational allocation of resources for public safety improvements at grade crossings, and the ability to assess the statistical significance of variances in the measured risk at grade crossings.

Last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2020